APPLICATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODELS TO FORECAST ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE IN HO CHI MINH CITY

Abstract

The economic growth rate is a critical macroeconomic indicator for economic policymakers and businesses, reflecting the economy's health. It serves as a foundation for making decisions on policies and socio-economic development plans at a national or local level. Quarterly forecasting of Ho Chi Minh City's economic growth rate enables city leaders to assess the likelihood of achieving the annual economic growth targets. This study analyzes and forecasts the time-series data of Ho Chi Minh City's quarterly economic growth rate for 2011-2024, using machine learning with artificial neural network (ANN) models and several econometric models to identify the suitable approach. The results indicate that the ANN model demonstrates superior accuracy compared to other models.